Fewer Films, Fewer Fans: TIFF 2024 Highlights the Trouble with Theatrical Distribution

The Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) has long been a vibrant showcase, especially for films seeking a U.S. distributor, but it faces a much harsher reality this year. Theatrical distribution is in a precarious state, and despite the industry’s attempt to rally post-lockdowns, the landscape for independent film releases remains deeply uncertain.

The Hollywood strikes of 2023 have only intensified these issues, highlighting a growing concern about the lack of quality films and a sharp decline in audience interest. As buyers and sellers descend upon TIFF today, the question lingers: Can theatrical releases survive in this challenging environment, or is the future of cinema slipping through the cracks?

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The Dwindling Appeal of Theatrical Distribution

The once-glamorous allure of releasing films in theaters is fading. Theatrical buyers, traditionally eager to secure the next big hit, are outmaneuvered by streaming platforms with bottomless pockets offering massive deals immediately available to audiences around the world.

The industry has a growing sense of cautious optimism regarding theatrical distribution. While many still believe in the unique value of the big screen experience, the focus has increasingly shifted towards ensuring films reach the broadest possible audience, whether through theaters or digital platforms. This shift reflects the evolving nature of the film industry, where the traditional theatrical model faces ongoing challenges but remains a critical part of the distribution landscape for certain types of films.

This challenge is emblematic of a deeper problem within the industry. As films increasingly head straight to streaming, theaters have fewer compelling options. Many mid-budget, adult-driven films that once thrived in theaters are now bypassing them entirely. The narrative that theatrical releases are still a significant part of a film’s success is becoming harder to defend, especially when the numbers show otherwise.

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Risk-Aversion Dominates: TIFF Buyers Face a Dwindling Selection

One of the harshest truths revealed at this year’s TIFF is the lack of high-quality films coming down the pipeline. While some titles have generated buzz based on name recognition alone, they represent only a fraction of what’s on offer. In previous years, a strong lineup of high-quality, must-see films would generate excitement among distributors. This year, the choices feel slimmer. The market feels very business as usual in that there’s not much groundbreaking new content to shake up the market.

With many of the films already locked in distribution deals before the festival even begins, the pool of available titles is even smaller. Two acquisition titles, “Jane Austen Wrecked My Life” and “RiffRaff,” were snapped up before the festival’s first screenings. This leaves buyers fighting over leftovers, a far cry from TIFF’s heyday when every day brought a new bidding war over the hottest films. Buyers might be hunting for top-tier projects, but few truly stand out in this risk-averse market.

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The Eroding Interest Among Moviegoers

Even more troubling than the lack of quality films is the dwindling interest from moviegoers. After years of disruptions due to lockdowns and ongoing Hollywood strikes, many theaters are struggling to attract audiences back. The North American summer box office may have had a sporadic rally, mainly due to a handful of blockbuster successes—anomalies in an otherwise bleak landscape.

For most films, the reality is stark: Theaters find it harder to convince people to leave their homes when streaming platforms offer convenience, a broad range of content, and high-quality viewing experiences right on their couches without interference from disruptive audiences that will only continue amid declining social cohesion.

TIFF itself is a microcosm of this more significant trend. While the festival used to be where audiences and critics would line up for hours to see the next big thing, the current atmosphere is more subdued. Even the much-anticipated world premieres seem less likely to spark the cultural conversations that once made TIFF a major player in the awards race. The excitement that traditionally surrounds the festival feels, at least in part, muted this year.

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Private Screenings and TIFF’s Market Expansion—Too Little, Too Late?

One of TIFF’s more notable changes this year is the introduction of private screenings, which will evolve into full-fledged market screenings by 2026. While this development suggests TIFF’s desire to remain competitive with other global film festivals, it also highlights the growing desperation within the theatrical market. The fact that buyers and sellers now rely on private screenings—previously banned at TIFF—speaks to the evolving needs of the industry. But will these changes really make a difference?

TIFF’s plan to launch a formal market by 2026 may already be outdated. By then, streaming dominance will likely have increased, and the number of films bypassing theaters altogether will have grown. TIFF’s CEO, is optimistic about the changes, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that this may be too little, too late. The shift in industry dynamics has already occurred, and TIFF, like other festivals, is likely chasing a past that’s never coming back.

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The Rise of Streamers and the Decline of Traditional Sales

The rise of streaming platforms has further complicated TIFF’s theatrical sales environment. With streamers offering lucrative deals that cover worldwide rights, many filmmakers find it difficult to resist. This trend weakens traditional distribution channels, leaving theatrical buyers scrambling to find projects platforms like Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon haven’t already scooped up.

Theatrical releases, once seen as the gold standard for filmmakers, now seem to be an afterthought, with streaming platforms offering the kind of financial backing and guaranteed audience numbers that theaters can’t match.

TIFF’s chief programming officer emphasizes that the industry conference is adapting to a more genre- and platform-agnostic landscape. Still, the reality is that theatrical distribution for independent films may soon be a relic of the past.

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FilmTake Away: A Festival at a Crossroads

The 2024 edition of the Toronto International Film Festival underscores a sobering reality for the film industry: The golden era of theatrical distribution may be over. With declining interest from moviegoers, fewer quality films, and the rise of streaming platforms, TIFF’s role as a hub for sales and distribution is being erased.

As buyers continue to grapple with these changes, the question remains: Can theatrical releases survive, or is the future of cinema moving toward a screen near you—one that sits in your living room?

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